Why Arnold's Redistricting Plan is a Disaster for Democrats Nationwide

Cross posted on Daily Kos (by calpolitic)

 Did you really think Arnold Schwarzenegger was pushing a mid-decade redistricting in California out of the goodness of his heart?

Make no mistake about it, redistricting is nothing more than a power struggle.  It's about who has power, who wants power, and who is going to do whatever it takes to get power.  

Arnold's redistricting plan is aimed squarely at keeping the GOP in control of Congress for decades to come.

Read the fine print.

Much has been made about the fact that Schwarzenegger's plan takes redistricting out of the hands of the State Legislature and puts it into the hands of three retired judges.  But the real power in Schwarzenegger's plan is not the panel of judges; it is the fact that the judges can only draw maps after following a set of strict and powerful criteria - criteria that hurts Democrats and helps Republicans.

Schwarzenegger disguises his initiative as a plan to take politics out of redistricting, but in reality, it is cleverly designed to draw neat, compact districts that pack Democrats into heavily Democratic seats.  This strategy leaves the remaining seats stacked in favor of Republicans.  Steven Hill, a fellow with the New America Foundation explains it well.

   

The urban vote is more concentrated, and so it's easier to pack Democratic voters into fewer districts. As Democratic redistricting strategist Sam Hirsch has noted, nice square districts are in effect a Republican gerrymander because they "combine a decade-old (but previously unnoticed) Republican bias" that along with a newly heightened degree of incumbent protection "has brought us one step closer to government under a United States House of Unrepresentatives."

Schwarzenegger's Compactness Criteria:
Arnold's redistricting criteria in Prop 77 sounds non-partisan:


    1) Judges must maximize the number of whole counties in each district, and minimize the number of multi-district counties.

       2. Judges must maximize the number of whole cities in each district, and minimize the number of multi-district cities.
       3. Districts must be as compact as practicable.  To the extent practicable, a contiguous area of population shall not be bypassed to incorporate an area of population more distant.

Fair and balanced, right?  Wrong!  These redistricting rules will have devastating effects on the power of Democratic voters.  Here's how it works.

Schwarzenegger's plan takes advantage of the geographic phenomenon that voters in urban centers vote heavily Democratic.  In contrast, outlying suburban and rural areas lean Republican.  In almost direct proportion, the further away from the urban core of a city, the more conservative the voting behavior.  

Couple this with the fact that in recent years, local migration patterns have been steadily away from expensive liberal coastal areas, sending more people into more affordable suburban areas in the Central Valley and Inland Empire, where voters become more conservative, just like their neighbors.


    In the next two decades, populations are projected to increase by 45 percent in inland counties, compared to 17 percent in coastal ones, the state's historical population centers. Inland counties will also have more absolute growth, 4.8 million compared to 4.4 million for their coastal counterparts. The fastest growth rates will be in the Inland Empire (Riverside and San Bernardino counties), the San Joaquin Valley, and the Sacramento metropolitan areas...

By requiring judges to draw a redistricting map that emphasizes compact districts incoroporating entire cities, the criteria in Prop 77 literally corrals Democrats into urban districts.  These districts could be as much as 80% Deocratic.  Districts will be so liberal, candidates will be munching on granola, wearing tie-dye and debating over whether condoms should be distributed to students in 4th grade or 6th grade.  

Where does this leave the remaining districts?  They'll be rural and suburban, and stacked in favor of the Republicans.

It's a classic Republican gerrymander.  Pack all the Democrats into a few heavily Democratic districts, leaving Republicans with slight edges in the majority of seats.

Look at California on the map of Purple America.  California has blue strongholds in the Bay Area and Los Angeles, but is purple everywhere else.

There is no way to predict with any certainty what a new map of Prop 77 Congressional districts would look like.  Judges could draw lines north-south, east-west, in infinite variations.  However, the Schwarzenegger compactness criteria are present in every possible plan.  This presents a statistical nightmare to ordinary citizens, but a wildly interesting challenge to mathematical geniuses and political junkies like Micah Altman at Harvard who wrote a dissertation on almost exactly this topic.


    Compactness standards, rather than being the neutral standard that the court envisions, are likely to have distinctly partisan effects. These simulation results contradicts the view of compactness advocates and bears out Lowenstein's (1985) assertion that compactness is not a partisan-neutral standard because of the way that Democrats are concentrated geographically.

In other words, most compactness standards will give the GOP an advantage over Democrats.

Maybe this would explain why the Chair of the California Republican Party, Duf Sundheim, is so adamant about supporting Prop 77.


    I ask that every Republican elected official in California whether he/she holds a municipal seat or a seat in the United States Congress support the fundamental principles of fairness and competition and not provide financial aid to defeat Proposition 77.  These are principles that the Republican Party holds dear and principles that the CRP will not turn its back on - no matter whose job is put at risk.

When Republicans start using terms like "principles of fairness", it's time to be worried.

California's Congressional Delegation is currently composed of 32 Democrats and 20 Republicans, a 61%-39% advantage.  
In 2004, Kerry only beat Bush by 10 points in California, 54%-44%.  A 2006 redistricting with Arnold's pro-GOP "compactness criteria" would make the Congressional delegation worse off than 54%-44% (28-24 seats).  That means the loss of at least four Democratic seats in the House - exactly what Tom Delay stole from Texas last Fall.

If Democrats ever want a chance at taking back our government, we need to stop the whining, stop the in-fighting, and concentrate on the things that actually change elections.  Again, I turn to Steven Hill.


    But has this stark reality of our political landscape made a dent in liberal or Democratic understanding of "what to do?" Hardly. Instead, moderate and progressive wings of the Democratic Party have been cannibalizing each other over the no-win debate about the base versus swing voters. Or else they have been fiddling to the latest fad about Lakoffian reframing.

    How convenient, to think you don't have to engage in the hard work of enacting fundamental electoral reform, city by city and state-by-state, all you have to do is find better speechwriters and produce slicker TV ads and then the left can go back to its poetry nights.


The biggest battle for control of Congress won't be happening in Ohio or Texas or Colorado.  And it won't even happen in 2006.  Control of the US House of Representatives for decades to come hinges on an arcane redistricting initiative on a special election ballot this November in California.  

There's a campaign on, and it's time we got involved.


Display:


Congress 2005 (none / 0)

Absolutely critical info here.  Recommended.
by Demo Dan in Dayton on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 01:40:02 PM EST

Thanks for the Cross-Post (none / 0)

We've had some interesting comments on this over at DKos.  

I'm curious to see what the MyDD crowd has to say!

calpolitic.

by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 02:14:15 PM EST

What kind of redistricting is fair? (3.00 / 1)

While I firmly agree with the goal of electing a Democratic majority, I don't think that partisan control of redistricting is the way to do it.  Perhaps Arnold's plan really is Republican redistricting in disguise, but then what is the right way to draw districts?  It certainly isn't to have partisans in the state house do it.

If district lines are drawn to partisan advantage in states where we have majorities, there are two negative consequences: 1, we are hypocritical in criticizing GOP redistricting like DeLay's Texas gerrymander.  2, when Republicans take control of the state house in California or other states (as some day they probably will), then we're totally screwed.  To whom can we trust redistricting that will make it fair and truly representative of the wishes of the voters?

"I do not support Roe versus Wade. It should be overturned."--John McCain
by lorax on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 02:16:10 PM EST

Re: What kind of redistricting is fair? (3.00 / 2)

I'd be interested in what that would look like as well.  I would think that non-partisan redistricting in general would be a good thing... you know, as long as the rules for drawing the borders didn't come straight out of Karl Rove's "How to Gerrymander for the GOP" handbook.
by Jefe Le Gran on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 02:26:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What kind of redistricting is fair? (3.00 / 2)

Good question.  There's a string here with some discussion of this.

I think geographic communities of interest need to be kept together.  Certain places have similar interests that can be well represented given the right district.

I also think that the sum of the parts should resemble the whole.  In other words, the partisan split of the congressional delegation should roughly resemble the partisan split of the state.

But, I think it has to happen everywhere or nowhere.  No state-by-state differences.

by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 02:31:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What kind of redistricting is fair? (3.00 / 2)

I'm happy to see this diary up. The only good redistricting measures are non-partisan plans that try to create competitive districts and geographically recognize communities of interest.
by Kombiz Lavasany on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:42:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What kind of redistricting is fair? (none / 0)

The more I think about it, the more I wonder... Is there any such thing as a non-partisan redistricting?  Isn't that an oxymoron?

I mean, redistricting is inherently political.  Is it possible to remove politics from something political?

It's kinda like taking money out of politics... is it really possible?

by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:22:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What kind of redistricting is fair? (none / 0)

Here's Iowa's Legislative Guide to Redistricting

Here's a public interest guide from Fair Vote

Redistricting can be done fairly and without partisan influences. It is not easy.

by Gary Boatwright on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 10:54:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What kind of redistricting is fair? (none / 0)

I think Washington has a good system too.
"I do not support Roe versus Wade. It should be overturned."--John McCain
by lorax on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 12:26:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What kind of redistricting is fair? (none / 0)

There are a very few states that have handled redistricting well.
by Gary Boatwright on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 11:04:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What kind of redistricting is fair? (none / 0)

Redistricting is never fair, at least if we're talking about the current system of single-representative districts.  Any single-representative district can either be representative or competitive, but not both.  Either everyone agrees, and one party wins 80-20, or it's close, which means 45% or more of the voters in the district go unrepresented.

Talking about making districts fair totally misses the point.  We need to start talking about true reform, which would mean going to either a proportional system or (my preference) multi-representative districts using a single transferable vote (stv) system like they have in Ireland and Australia.  You can read about STV here (wikipedia).

Some sort of proportional system is the only way we'll get truly representative elections.

by taliesin on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 01:16:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Great points...recommended (3.00 / 2)

The CA Nurses put it well:  Vote NO in November.

Folks get confused with the numbers; we need to make it simple.  Don't let Arnold mess it.

k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 02:24:44 PM EST

What's missing from this conversation (3.00 / 1)

I agree with lorax.  We can't criticize DeLay's Texas gerrymandering if we condone doing the same thing where we are in power.

By definition, gerrymandering involves drawing ridiculously convoluted boundaries that put people from far corners of the state into one district for some political purpose.  If it's okay for us to do it, then it's okay for them to do it too.

The logic goes like this: Compactness hurts Democrats; therefore, compactness is bad.  Unfortunately, this is faulty logic.

The reason compactness hurts Democrats is because Democrats aren't effectively getting their message across to those who don't live in compacted areas.  Why do people become more conservative when they move to the suburbs?  And what can we do about it?

Using district boundaries to further any political agenda is wrong.  Let's figure out how to convince voters in all regions that our message is compelling, good for them, and right for the United States.

by nocloset on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 02:48:26 PM EST

Re: What's missing from this conversation (3.00 / 2)

If we are dumb enough to support a "fair" plan where we're in charge so we can take the high ground and whine about Texas-style Gerrymanders where they're in charge, then we deserve to be in the minority.

I'll support FAIR national policies, but not state-by-state approaches.

by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's missing from this conversation (3.00 / 2)

I'm not suggesting we sit back and whine about what the Republicans do where they are in power.  I support a national standard on this.

But since when is taking the moral highground stupid?

The only reason they're in power now and we're not is because they were better than us at selling their message and getting people to believe them.  They did it by lying, by maligning good people, and by manipulating language to suit their purpose.  And we let them get away with it.

We have no business using gerrymandering to try to get back in power.  We've got to stop letting the Republicans win the war of words and stop letting them get away with their Rovian tactics.  We've got to sell the message that what they are doing is bad for individuals, bad for our nation, and bad for the planet.  And we've got to prove that we have a better way.

by nocloset on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:16:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's missing from this conversation (3.00 / 1)

You're right; taking the moral highground is not stupid.  

But, I think there's more to them being in power than good message.  There are many many different levers of power in American politics and message is just one of them.  

We can concentrate on our message, but we also need to watch our backs for attacks from the right on the fundamentals... GOTV, redistricting, legislating, agenda-setting, etc.

Arnold's plan isn't fair, and it's certain to hurt Democrats.  I'm just nervous because there's a LOT at stake on this one.

by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's missing from this conversation (none / 0)

Thats right, Gary Boatrwright just last week told me in a post by Rosenburg/ thread that Arnold is an example of how the GOP can be defeated when in fact he's scoring for the GOP

My concern are those in the party that really are single issue voters going out and wrecking the party by turning it against itself.  This kind of sniping the gov. is trying to get away with is a lot harder
when you have a unified opposition to his maneuvers and high visibility.

California is a nice place...

by turnerbroadcasting on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 10:50:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Disagree (3.00 / 3)

First of all, the Texas redistricting was done between censuses.  That was the basis of our opposition to it.  It was a blatant power grab done for no other reason than they could.

Second, you use gerrymandering too loosely.  Ie. you imply that the current CA map (2mb pdf), which is what we are defending from Arnold's off-census year power grab, is heavily gerrymandered.  It isn't   It was clearly drawn by a Democratic majority, yes, but it was not gerrymandered.  There are many safe GOP seats that were left untouched, and the district boundaries aren't as you would imply.

Third,  nation-wide district boundaries are a highly important and non-neutral issue no matter how you slice it.  

In my view, we Democrats stand idly by while African-American voters in the cities and in the Southern United States are kept in heavily Black majority districts that no longer need those percentages for Civil Rights reasons.  ie.  in 2005, versus 1970, African-American candidates can get elected in districts that have 30%, or even 25%, black representation.  The GOP continues this districting as a form of segregation against Democratic voters, imo....a segregation re-inforced by the fact that there are STILL many impediments and barriers to black integration of largely white suburbs and rural areas all over this country.

Finally, I disagree with this statement:

The reason compactness hurts Democrats is because Democrats aren't effectively getting their message across to those who don't live in compacted areas.  Why do people become more conservative when they move to the suburbs?  And what can we do about it?

Compactness hurts us, in part, because historically, poor and minority voters CAN'T just move to the suburbs.  And many suburban voters are more conservative and vote against fair taxation and funding our schools and cities in part to keep this status quo.  That's a political reality.

I'm all for getting our message across, nationwide.  However, I think your argument represents a view that buys into the GOP frame, of appearing "non-partisan" while playing partisan games to the hilt.

We fighting Dems need to stand up for our people and be partisan ourselves at times.

In this case, that means we need to say NO to Arnold this November.

k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disagree (none / 0)

First, I never implied anything about the current California districting map.

Second:


Compactness hurts us, in part, because historically, poor and minority voters CAN'T just move to the suburbs.  And many suburban voters are more conservative and vote against fair taxation and funding our schools and cities in part to keep this status quo.  That's a political reality.

What is the Democratic Party's message to these poor and minority voters who can't move to the suburbs?  "We can help you stay poor"?  "We can help you remain ghettoized"?  Or maybe, "We can help you get ahead so you can move to the suburbs and become Republicans"????

We'd better have a message for people who are living the American dream.  Otherwise, we're no better than Rush paints us...  we're happy to convince poor people that we can help them, only we really want them to remain poor so they'll continue to vote for us.

If we can only sell our message to poor and minority voters, then woe is us and woe is our country!

by nocloset on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:34:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disagree (none / 0)

Nocloset, I agree that we should be more competitive in some places, but part of the problems with politics is that people vote similary to their neighbors. What the Prop 77 attempts to do is to cage in Democratic voters so that the California GOP could create dilute Democrat strength is other places.
by Kombiz Lavasany on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:48:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disagree (3.00 / 8)

That's willfully distorting everything.

Let's keep it simple:

You're for Proposition 77, I'm not, it's a flawed proposal backed by Arnold and the GOP.  There's a way to do redistricting reform in California, this isn't it.

Further, as a Democrat, I'm for fighting GOP proposals, on the merits and on principle and just because...because the GOP never plays fair, has always got ulterior motives and shady financial backing from big money, and does not have the interest of our constituents at heart, whatever lip service they pay to think tank generated astro turf ideals.

When you say:  "We have no business using gerrymandering to try to get back in power. "

You are ceding huge points to Arnold.  What gerrymandering?  Why do you keep bringing it up if you don't think there's a problem with the current CA map?  Those are GOP talking points, and, need I point out they are the ones trying to change things now, not us.  

You say take you want to take the "high ground" on redisricting and then write:

"What is the Democratic Party's message to these poor and minority voters who can't move to the suburbs?  "We can help you stay poor"?  "We can help you remain ghettoized"?  Or maybe, "We can help you get ahead so you can move to the suburbs and become Republicans"????"

Basically, that just takes more biased rhetoric straight from the GOP, and makes me scratch my head.  Whatever ironic spin you're putting on this, that's not our message to our voters and never has been.

We Democrats have distinct and different views on social security, education, health care, fiscal responsiblity, progressive taxation, mass transportation and the environment that benefit everyone, with a capital E.

My politics is to build coalition between the self interests of urban democrats, of which I'm one, and folks in the suburbs and rural areas of all political persuasions. ie. pragmatic alliance building based on mutual self-interest.

Is it a reality that race and class keep many folks locked in the cities?  Hell yes.  I've seen it, and written about it.

My point is, one essential thing about partisan politics is that we fight for our people.  I draw the definition of our people with a very wide brush, but it most certainly includes the voters who live and work in cities and give their votes overwhelmingly to the Democratic Party.

When jefe writes:

"It's a classic Republican gerrymander.  Pack all the Democrats into a few heavily Democratic districts, leaving Republicans with slight edges in the majority of seats."

That describes exactly the situation that gives the GOP a huge edge in "lean Republican districts" in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.  And that situation works against all Americans, and has helped give all of us a Congress of GOP right wing clones.  We Deomcrats could do much better in those four states with fair map that allowed our cities to share a district with their suburbs.

There is NOTHING wrong with the idea that urban democrats, oftentimes kept in cities due to racism and economic barriers to mobility, should not SHARE a Congressperson with wealthier suburban neighbors.  NOTHING.

In fact, that is exactly the kind of coaltion-building that I advocate.

It's a lot harder to call someone a "ghetto-dweller" when we are sitting in the same room.  And when we DO sit in the same room, and talk it out, we realize that you have a great deal of poltiics in common.

Bottom line, I'm for saying NO to Arnie in November.

k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 06:12:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disagree (none / 0)

I know you have your differences with Kos, Kid, but man I miss your rants.  Rock on!
by Jefe Le Gran on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 06:55:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disagree (none / 0)

Go Kid Oakland! Go!
by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:14:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Beautiful (3.00 / 2)

Kid,

Nicely said.

I wrote four stories about the California redistricting effort here. Links to all four, ONE TWO THREE FOUR. Instead of wonking it I could have used part of the four paragraphs from above. The point that's really important here is, that nominal reform in California is not real reform. Unfortunately, this proposition isn't even nominal reform. It's an attempt to cage Democrats in to their district, and there's no attempt to create competitive districts, or make the process deliberative between a representative group of judges.

If there are progressives who want to jump on every initiative that ends in the word reform, they will reform themselves out of any influence on government. Just so we're clear there are two Democratically sponsored bills in the State Senate that are actually reform minded, but Schwarzenager refuses to negotiate or talk with Senate Dems. Those bills recognize communities of interests, competitive districts, and a 9 panel of non-partisan judges that reflects California's diversity.

by Kombiz Lavasany on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:32:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disagree (none / 0)

I reworded your point about voters voting more conservatively when they move to the suburbs downthread. Agreed.

As far as mid-term re-districting goes, it would be more impossible to adjust districts in California mid-term than it was in Texas.

There are very good reasons redistricting is supposed to follow the census.

It is impossible to calculate the population shifts to California from other states or the internal movements from rural to city or vice versa. It is a fair assumption that the vast majority of population shifts would favor urban areas. How would a three judge panel calculate that? Would three old, white conservative Republican judges use assumptions that favored urban areas or rural areas?

by Gary Boatwright on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:49:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's missing from this conversation (none / 0)

People become more conservative when they move to suburbs because people vote their selfish vested interest no matter where they live.

In cities their selfish vested interest is with government spending that supports city services and schools.

In the suburbs their selfish vested interest is low taxes, because their suburban property taxes do not support the urban area that supports the suburbs.

Democratic voters do not give a damn about city sewers, streets, schools or crime once they move to the suburbs. There have also been studies that people vote more conservatively than their political beliefs, because their personal selfishness is a more powerful determiner of their vote than their political beliefs.

by Gary Boatwright on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's missing from this conversation (3.00 / 3)

Gary,

I don't agree with you that suburban Dems all of the sudden don't "give a damn about city sewers, streets, schools, or crime once they move to the suburbs."

We're Democrats.  We actually care what happens to other people.  I quote from Barack Obama..

A belief that we are connected as one people. If there's a child on the south side of Chicago who can't read, that matters to me, even if it's not my child. If there's a senior citizen somewhere who can't pay for her prescription and has to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it's not my grandmother. If there's an Arab American family being rounded up without benefit of an attorney or due process, that threatens my civil liberties. It's that fundamental belief -- I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper -- that makes this country work. It's what allows us to pursue our individual dreams, yet still come together as a single American family. "E pluribus unum." Out of many, one.

It's not that suburban Democrats just all of the sudden don't care like they used to.  It's that suburban Democrats don't SEE all the things they used to.  

They don't see the homeless people walking around the neighborhood talking to themselves.  They don't see the sewer system backing up.  They don't see the kids playing hookie from school.

In fact, if you live in the burbs, you probably don't see much besides the inside of your house, your garage, our traffic-clogged freeways, your office, our freeways again, and back to the inside of your garage.

And, because we're human, if we don't see it, it doesn't exist.

by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:55:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's missing from this conversation (none / 0)

It looks to me like you actually agree with me for different reasons. If you prefer to think that surburban voters would care about the problems of city dwellers they left behind if they coud see them, fine.

The experience of voting patterns does not support you. The urban/suburban split is nearly universal from everything I've read. Urban centers are the economic hub that suburban voters travel to every day to work. They go to the city for recreation on weekends. They have all of the advantages an urban center has to offer, and don't have to pay for the infrastructure that supports those amenities.

A number of cities are trying different methods of taxing suburban commuters for the services they receive and meeting a lot of opposition from the suburbs in their legislatures.

by Gary Boatwright on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 11:04:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's missing from this conversation (none / 0)

That declaration that Exurbia went GOP is something that is only slightly supported, it depends on where you draw the lines. By and large many people are stuck between two parties, Gary -

Two parties that are into this kind of redistricting, protect their jobs B-S and not into helping out their districts. The exurbs aren't happy with Bush right now.

My vote is NO but that means NO to anyone trying to sell me that the Dems are doing anything worthwhile about it all either too..

by turnerbroadcasting on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 10:53:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What's missing from this conversation (none / 0)

Why does anyone need an excuse to criticize Tom DeLay? I'll criticize him for getting out of bed in the morning. He probably accepts his first bribe before breakfast.
by Gary Boatwright on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 11:06:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

eh.. (none / 0)

CA won't vote for it... or him for that matter in 06.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 02:57:56 PM EST

Re: eh.. (none / 0)

I hope you're right.
by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:03:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Competitive Districts (3.00 / 1)

I think what we should be looking for is a non-partisan panel that will draw districts so that they are competitive, not necessarily the most compact.  This would address the concerns upthread about us drawing districts to benefit Democrats.  And maybe the panel should not be non-partisan but should be made up of members of the third parties only, no major party members.
by Demo Dan in Dayton on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:08:08 PM EST

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

But wouldn't that just give us a bunch of mealy-mouthed moderate candidates.  I think Joe Lieberman has his moments, but an entire Congress full of them?  Ouch.
by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:11:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

Why can't the guideline just be that the most likely percentage of dem/rep representatives must equal the percentage of dem/reps in the state, plus or minus one representative?

For instance if the breakdown is 55/45 in favor of republicans, and there were nine representatives, you'd expect five republicans and four democrats.

the house of reps is supposed to be representative of the population.  that's the whole friggin point.

by tunesmith on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:50:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

Given that scenario there would be no room for representation for the plurality of citizens that don't vote.  If the districts are drawn in a competitive fashion that would allow for the possiblity of future third parties and also hopefully militate against far right hijacking of districts.
by Demo Dan in Dayton on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 08:38:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

You can try this informally, but (IANAL) I'd bet there's no way you could write a law mandating that approach.  The constitutional basis for the House is that candidates represent "the People" of their district, not the national party.  I.e., I can't imagine how it would be legally justifiable to say, "you MUST predict how many of these seats will go to each party, and make results fit the partisan breakdown."  Of course, this is precisely what they do now (predict which seats go to which party under different scenarios), but they can get away with that in part because there ISN'T a law mandating it.  Otherwise, possible equal protection, Article I issues.

Even informally, practical problems; which breakdown do you use?  Most recent presidental election?  Party registration?  Each has problems.  Presidental elections all have their unique dynamics, not necessarily representative of stable political affiliations.  Party registration misses independents, and often doesn't reflect actual voting patterns too well.  Primary participation?  Depends on which primary was more exciting in the last election.  Etc.

No, I personally think we have to find away to get these damn projections of voting trends out of the process altogether.  In the abstract, I like the idea of communities of interest, if it can be put into operation.

I also agree: not state by state.  Universal disarmament, or none at all.

by arenwin on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 11:01:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

Look at Arizona's model, there are accepted ways of determing party preference in a district to a given degree. It's much more effective the more people you have in a district. The law gives the state the right to hire someone whom all parties agree is impartial, and that person determine the competitiveness of the districts.
by Kombiz Lavasany on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 11:15:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

Very interesting.  I googled Arizona redistricting, and found some great summarizes and fact sheets.  One thing was a little vague - how much of a factor is the "competitiveness" issue, given that it's just one of a great many criteria they're permitted to consider?  One fact sheet I found seemed to imply that in practice, improving competitiveness was not a major factor - that on the contrary the commission was accused of gerrymandering (and even taken to court over it?)  Any info on that?  

And how open is the process?

I'm very curious about how this works in practice.

by arenwin on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 11:24:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

It was I believe one of the top three, but the reason it didn't play out as well was because some districts in Arizona were Voting Rights areas where minority populations had to be protected. So without looking it back up, I believe only two districts were truly competitive. In California I believe there are two counties covered by the VRA and I think they won't really effect more than 1 district.
by Kombiz Lavasany on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 11:35:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

I think the party breakdown of the delegation should equal that of the state, but it's not enough.  Here's an extreme example.

You could have a state with 1 million people, 600K are Dems, 400K are Reps.  Let's say there were 100K per district...  You could have 6 districts with 100K Dems in each district, and 4 districts with 100K Reps.  It's "fair", but the people who got elected would be so extremely conservative or liberal, that it wouldn't be represenative of the state as a whole.

There's no easy answer here.

by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 11:03:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

There are two major problems with this idea that have not been raised.  

  1.  Competitiveness is unworkable in some areas.  There would be no good way to make a competitive district that included a place like Berkeley.  You'd have to exetend the district well East into the Central Valley to include enough Republicans to counterbalance Berkeley's Democrats while excluding Richmond (which is essentially the big northern neighbor to Berkeley) and Oakland (which is the big southern neighbor to Berkeley).  Right now the congressional district (which now includes Oakland, Berkeley and Richmond) presents even more of a challenge.    

  2.  Competitiveness is sometimes looked at in terms of voter registration numbers.  Since registered Republicans turn out to vote more than registered Dems, a nominally competitive district might really favor Reps.  In this Special Election, for example, the low turnout means that the 9 point Dem registration advantage statewide will largerly disappear (or so I've been led to believe).  Also, California has a huge number of voters registered decline to state and independent.        

Visit my blog Say No to Pombo
by Matt Lockshin on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 10:13:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

Matt, competitiveness to a certain degree is possible everywhere. One may be able to calculate the competitiveness to 6 or 7 points as has been done in Arizona. Secondly, the way Arizona computes competitiveness is not based on voter registration, as it is flawed because of what you said. Competitiveness is based on voting behaviors over several cycles. There are plentify of scientific way of doing voter behavior as is evident in every state that has politically redistricted. It is not perfect, but does give you a good sense of how many people vote Democratic and Republican in an area.
by Kombiz Lavasany on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 10:28:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Competitive Districts (none / 0)

Competitiveness is a secondary goal, not a primary one. If the gerrymandering problems are addressed first, the competitiveness will take care of itself. It is inherently the partisan focus on bizarre shaped districts that makes them uncompetitive. If that is not permitted the problem of competitiveness is solved.

Nothing else is necessary or desireable.

by Gary Boatwright on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 11:10:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Mixed Emotions (2.50 / 2)

Schwarzengger's always thought he can somehow revive the moribund Republican party in CA. (Reagan as President shot it, and Pete Wilson nailed the coffin shut.)

His idea makes sense to reform the CA Senate to balance rural interest in one house against more suburban and urban interests in the other. For the US House delegation it won't work as well.

Still...you must not live in CA. The biggest defense contractor, Betchel, has it's headquarters in San Francisco. The new darling of the Democrat fundraising machine are Indian casinos, based in god-awful parts of the state.

The bad news for Democrats in CA is that Schwarzenegger is trying to break the unions and if he succeeds, the voter base is already depleted by the migration of blacks to other states. Replacing them are Asians (who are not as reliably Democratic but still vote for education and such) and Latinos who often cannot vote.

by risenmessiah on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:18:18 PM EST

Re: Mixed Emotions (none / 0)

His idea makes sense to reform the CA Senate to balance rural interest in one house against more suburban and urban interests in the other.

It is my strong impression that rural areas are already over represented in the California legislature.

by Gary Boatwright on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:26:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mixed Emotions (3.00 / 1)

I don't think so.

Look at the maps if you don't believe me.

http://www.legislature.ca.gov/legislators_and_districts/districts/senatedistricts.html

http://www.legislature.ca.gov/legislators_and_districts/districts/assemblydistricts.html

The core concept of avoiding disambiguation by not allowing cities and counties to be broken in two is actually a good idea. It increases a constitutents chance to correctly assess the efficacy of his representation.

Schwarzenegger might think it's a great idea to help turn California more Republican, but it's not going to do that any more than the demographic shift will. People stare at the "Red v. Blue" map and are mesmerized seeing everything from the Election of 1860 to "Purple America".

Each of those maps are worthless because instead of showing the INDIVIDUAL VOTERS, they only calculate the majority opinion for a Congressional District, county, or state.

I think the "special election" is a joke and Arnold's wasting his time...undermining his authority by allowing more ballot measures than normal. But even the biggest dumbasses in government can find and support ideas that are technically sound. So don't throw the baby out with the bathwater...the Democrats should recongize a good idea when they see it and avoid being outmaneuvered by him on this.

by risenmessiah on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 08:27:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mixed Emotions (3.00 / 2)

Look skip the rural vs. urban stuff. It just doesn't hold up on in California. Most of Southern California would be deemed suburban with hundreds of cities connecting the suburban Inland Empire to urban Los Angeles. Take a drive on the I-10 and you'll never realize your passing political boundaries between cities when you drive from San Bernardino to northern San Diego, or to Malibu. Making the main provision of the proposition the supremecy of these lines between cities is complete crap, and it's point is to cage in city voters. Would north LA voters have more in common with communities in the valley or would a district forced down to the to grab the middle or parts of west LA be part of their community. That's why Costa doesn't use the communities of interest clause. It's also why there's no determination to create competitive districts.

The communities exist all throughout Southern California. So don't exhalt the boundary provisions, because they are anti-Democratic crap. They are meant to cage Democratic voters wherever possible. It's a gamble sure, but it's one weighted towards Republicans which is why they are  supporting the provision.

The accepted method for good districts is always communities of interest, rather than city boundaries per se', especailly in a place as dense and spread out as southern califonria.

What you like, and what you think is reform is a redrawing of districts by a non-partisan three judge panel. You don't mind saying that have their hand tied by the above provision. Or that there are only three and they are appointed, and they are no way representative of Californians. That's not reform, that's a redrawing of districts after the fact. They may look more reformy than the current districts, but they set a bad standard for the future.

Lastly, you mention individual voters above controlling the process. The problem here is that you're being an idealist, and they (the Republicans) are living in reality. California has 40 State Senators, 53 Congresspeople and 80 Representative Districts. The smallest district is not less that 400,000 persons. When they submit their plan they know how precincts vote for years, they know how many Democrats switch, and how likely they are to switch, how to make a district Democratic. They can make it very difficult for a district to act any way than with a party ID.

Oh and those maps, the judges don't draw them. They just choose which one they want. So you have a case where Republican partisans draw the map based precise data, and a judge who is not allowed to look at that data when they choose a map. That's your reform, more power to the operatives, less power and knowledge to the judges. That's the reform you're suggesting is technically sound.

by Kombiz Lavasany on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 08:58:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's key (3.00 / 2)

"Oh and those maps, the judges don't draw them. They just choose which one they want. So you have a case where Republican partisans draw the map based precise data, and a judge who is not allowed to look at that data when they choose a map. That's your reform, more power to the operatives, less power and knowledge to the judges."

That quote is on the money....as is the point about driving I-10 out of LA.

I still find myself thinking that how we define "communities of interest" in this country, and as a Party....cuts to the core of our current political climate.  

When we have a Town Hall forum during a campaign and really bring Americans together across demographic lines....the level of political discourse jumps up.  The citizens tend to rise to the occasion.  

We need to create that within the Democratic party.

k/o: politics and local blogs
by kid oakland on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 09:14:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's key (none / 0)

I wrestled with the same sort of problems when I first began thinking about the California problem. I'm a reformer, but I've been around enough smart people to know how districts are drawn, and the kind of information that operatives hold. I also want redistricting in Ohio, and Florida, but have always thought a Democratic plan in the California State Senate that tries to draw districts based on an analysis of voting behavior is the way to do it. I want nothing more than the California plan to fail and the Ohio and Florida plans which are based on communities of interests, ie. Yorba Linda and Anahaeim hills (but only a part of Anaheim is in that community) are the same community to prevail. The best plan or idea is to create competitive districts within several performance points with the same data that operatives from both parties hold. When it comes time to do contiguousness after the partisan weighting, people of the same socio-economic background who may live in parts of divided cities to be put in the same district. This takes some skill, but a panel of multiple judges could easily perform the task in a transperent way, and create competitive districts. I'm stealing all this from time I spent studying the issue, but mainly by reading Demos. http://www.mydd.com/story/2005/2/17/163731/955
by Kombiz Lavasany on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 09:29:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's key (none / 0)

But that's what I can't figure out about the California Senate.

I'd rather have the Assembly represent people on a per-capita basis and have each county send a state Senator to Sacramento to hash out the details.

As for the US Congress...your ideal is exactly what we have now and what isn't working. Anaheim Hills benefits from various associations with the City of Anaheim. But the price of those benefits are undesirable externalities. By having separate members of the Congress...the motivation of the person representing the Hills/Yorba Linda to actively deal with the problems of Anaheim is invariably less.

So why allow the residents of Anaheim Hills to get a free ride?

by risenmessiah on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 01:36:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's key (none / 0)

Have each county with one senator?  That's a great idea!  In the 2003 recall election, 10 counties (out of 55) voted against the recall.  Granted, some of those other 45 probably lean democratic, but I think it's safe to say that your one-senator-per-county idea would result in a senate that was at least 35 Republicans to 20 dems.

In reality, the CA senate should simply be done away with completely, and we should just have one chamber with 120 (or preferably a lot more) reps.

by taliesin on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 12:59:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

55 Counties but only 40 seats (none / 0)

Yeah it's true...only the people living in Northern California wanted to keep the higher car tax. The recall is the "dream map" of knuckleheads like Schwarzenegger about the "chances" of the GOP in CA.

It's true that in 2004 only 22 counties went for Kerry and a whopping 36 jurisdictions went for Bush. But there are only forty Senate seats. So there would be a Democratic majority in so far as many of the less populous counties would be condensed into one seat. The Kerry counties all would be popoulous enough to avoid being lumped in with a populous Bush county. But it would be more fair than the current map and force more cooperation out of the state and local authorities. (Cuz if your county employees don't look good...your state Senator doesn't look good.)

Los Angeles     9,979,600       
Orange     2,978,800       
San Diego     2,961,600       
San Bernardino     1,833,000       
Santa Clara     1,729,900       
Riverside     1,705,500       
Alameda     1,496,200       
Sacramento     1,309,600    Amador    36,500
Contra Costa    994,900       
Fresno     841,460       
San Francisco     791,600       
Ventura     791,300       
San Mateo     717,000       
Kern    702,900       
San Joaquin     613,500    Calaveras    42,450
Stanislaus    481,600    Tuolumne     56,500
Sonoma    472,700       
Monterey     415,800    San Benito     56,300
Solano     412,000       
Santa Barbara    410,300       
Tulare     386,200    Kings    136,100
Placer    275,600       
Santa Cruz     259,800       
San Luis Obispo     256,300       
Marin    250,400       
Merced     225,100       
Butte     210,400    Plumas    20,900
Yolo    181,300    Colusa    19,700
Shasta    172,000    Siskiyou    44,400
El Dorado     163,600    Alpine    1,210
Imperial    150,900       
Madera     131,300    Mariposa    17,450
Napa     129,800    Lake     61,300
Humboldt    128,300    Del Norte    27,850
Nevada     95,700    Sierra    3,520
Mendocino    87,700    Trinity    13,300
Sutter    83,200    Yuba    62,800
Lassen    34,950    Modoc    9,350
Inyo    18,350    Mono    13,325
Tehama    57,500    Glenn    27,050

by risenmessiah on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 09:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's key (none / 0)

Concur
by turnerbroadcasting on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 10:54:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mixed Emotions (none / 0)

<quote>Look skip the rural vs. urban stuff. It just doesn't hold up on in California.</quote>

Man, you've never been north of San Francisco, have you?  ;o)  Hehe... as a Humboldt County native, I have to take exception to that....

by Jefe Le Gran on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 12:13:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mixed Emotions (none / 0)

North California is a dream. I really enjoy this area. I wish everyone could visit there.
by turnerbroadcasting on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 09:22:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It ain't broke. (none / 0)

If the current districts were grossly out of whack with the state's partisan makeup, there might be a case to be made for redistricting reform here. But check this out:

Looking at last year's returns, and ignoring the third-party votes for the sake of simplicity, the Cali congressional vote went to the Dems, 57.5%-42.5%. Under a proportional representation system, that would give the Dems 30 seats and the Reeps 23. (If we factor in 3rd-party votes, the Libertarians would fall just inches short of grabbing a single seat, with nobody else coming close.)

The actual outcome? Dems 33, Reeps 20.

This is hardly a rigged game we're talking about. Certainly not worth putting our future representation in the hands of the Reepinator. If we want to talk about fixing the system, I'd sooner see an actual proportional representation system than what they're proposing.

(Math subject to error. My thumbs are too tired to double-check my data entry.)

Yeah, I'm cynical.
by catastrophile on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:55:10 PM EST

Re: It ain't broke. (none / 0)

Please. When 53 congressional elections are held and not one changes hands, including only a couple where the incumbent party dropped under 60%, SOMEthing is broke.
by asf6 on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:13:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It ain't broke. (none / 0)

So, by that logic, in order for it to be "fair", one party has to take seats from the other party?
by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:40:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's totally consistent with (none / 0)

the national pattern, not just a Cali problem. What is it that's so urgently wrong with our districts that we need the Reepinator to "fix" them for us?
Yeah, I'm cynical.
by catastrophile on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:44:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It ain't broke. (none / 0)

That is a different problem. Incumbant protection is not necessarily addressed by any redistricting plan.
by Gary Boatwright on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:42:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Who's endangered if it passes? (3.00 / 2)

This is a question for anyone here with more familiarity with California districts and demographics than me and who has a sense of what the redistricting commission might do... if districts in California got consolidated for compactness, which districts would be hardest hit (from the perspective of retaining Democratic U.S. House members)?

Of the top of my head, the only district I can think of where consolidation would probably result in a Democratic loss would be the squiggly 20th (represented by Jim Costa), which is a Latino-majority gerrymander linking Latino parts of Fresno and Bakersfield. (And this points to an interesting sub-question: isn't the existence of this district, like other minority-majority districts, compelled by the Voting Rights Act? This referendum can't preempt federal laws about districting, right?)

I can think of a couple more potential problems, Bob Filner's 51st and Dennis Cardoza's 18th... but it seems redrawing those lines would be big gambles for the GOP (since if we gave Imperial County to Duncan Hunter's 52nd and the Latino parts of Stockton to Richard Pombo's 11th, that would make those guys both much less secure). Am I missing any tenuous districts in San Bernardino County or the San Gabriel Valley? (Like the 43rd, maybe?) To my inexperienced eye, this looks more like rearranging Titanic deck chairs than a set-up for a Texas-style blowout.

(I'm relying on this map, but if someone could point us to a map that that overlays information like voting patterns or racial breakdown or even city boundaries, that would be terrific.)

by Crazy Vaclav on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 04:02:04 PM EST

Re: Who's endangered if it passes? (3.00 / 1)

How's this for starters?

In addition to the Costa/Cardoza problem, there's Mike Thompson's seat.  A "compacted" 1st district could mean a Humboldt, Del Norte, Trinity, Shasta, Siskiyou Co. district, a sure-fire Rep district.

Also, there's the Lois Kapps seat (23rd), that seat is underwater at high tide... not compact at all.  Look at the State Senate to see how the Central Coast would vote.

You correctly point out the Filner seat in San Diego... not exactly the most compact.  

We'd probably pick up one because David Drier would be toast.

How about Lorretta Sanchez in Orange Co?  Or what about Joe Baca in the Inland Empire?

But that doesn't even get into the question of Los Angeles.  We may not lose seats, but we may lose good members.  Howard Berman, Henry Waxman, and Brad Sherman could all easily be drawn into the same district.  This would make Dems lose seniority and expertise on a number of key committees and issues on the Hill.

There's a million different ways to draw these districts, so there's only a couple of really safe seats... SF, Oakland, LA (5), San Jose, San Diego.  The rest of them are up for grabs.

by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 04:20:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who's endangered if it passes? (3.00 / 1)

Is that link to the correct place? It just took me to the Daily Kos version of the same diary you've posted above.

Anyway, those are some good points. Lois Capps would definitely be in for some rough sailing. Is that little bite of Ventura County that she has the most liberal part of Ventura County? Assumedly she'd lose that in exchange for the inland parts of Santa Barbara and SLO counties. And smooshing Berman and Waxman into the same district, that's a real danger too.

Changing the boundaries between the 1st and 2nd seems like a roll of the dice more than anything. A district where you have Humboldt County balancing out Shasta County seems pretty competitive, if leaning Rep (Shasta County has a lot more people, right?). But that also leaves you with the remaining district, where you'd have Napa, Mendocino, and Yolo counties balancing out more conservative Sutter, Yuba, and Butte counties; that one might actually lean Dem.

Like you said, there's a million ways to play this... maybe so much so that it kind of looks like a giant crapshoot for both parties.

by Crazy Vaclav on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 04:46:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reeps only gamble (3.00 / 2)

with other people's lives and money, not their own careers. They'd only be for this crapshoot if the dice were loaded to favor them.
Yeah, I'm cynical.
by catastrophile on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:14:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Democrats are endangered if it passes (3.00 / 2)

The Ahnold's plan calls for retired judges to be on the redistricting panel. The vast majority of living, retired judges were appointed by Gov. Deukmejian and Gov. Wilson. It is entirely possible the panel would have three old, white conservative Republican judges.

I think we can all guess which party would be favored by old, white conservative Republican judges.

by Gary Boatwright on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 07:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who's endangered if it passes? (3.00 / 2)

Apologies Crazy Vaclav.  This is the link I meant to post.  It's a thread over on Kos where folks were talking about which seats were in danger.  

You're right about there being a million ways to play this.  And you're right about it being a crap-shoot to know which individual congressional members would be screwed.

But, like a craps game, it is stacked in favor of the Republicans.  The Compactness Criteria guarantee that no matter how you draw the actual districts, Democrats will be packed into heavily Democratic seats, leaving the Republicans to prey on the suburbs.

by JackConnor on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 08:41:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Compactness can be our friend (sometimes) (3.00 / 3)

I'm thinking of the South, not California, when I say that compactness can work to our advantage. There are a number of gerrymandered African-American majority districts in the South that don't even look like salamanders and instead just look like someone sneezed on the map.

These districts, on the one hand, are a positive development since they've led to the election of some truly progressive House members from the South like Mel Watt. But they also work to the GOP's advantage by concentrating black votes and leaving only right-wing white districts elsewhere, instead of dispersing black votes where they can be a moderating influence in a number of districts. Think of it this way: in areas of the south where there used to be one conservative Republican for every two moderate Democrats, now there's two conservative Republicans for every progressive Democrat.

This was a big factor, I think, in the Democratic losses in 1994. Starting in 1992 when the redistricting happened (as compelled under the Voting Rights Act), a lot of moderate white Democrat reps who used to have districts with sizable black minorities instead found themselves in much less friendly districts with mostly white right-wing suburbanites, and predictably they got bounced in 1994.

Would a return to compactness in the South help with the electoral calculus? (Granted, there's a lot that's happened in the meantime like changes in party ID and the dwindling of the Dixiecrats.) Some might say it's better to have a few seats that are gimmees, but I'd rather have a number of seats that are competitive and open for reclamation in a Democratic high-tide year.

by Crazy Vaclav on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 04:25:14 PM EST

We will win (none / 0)

California hates him.  His approval rating is as low as Bush's here (37%).  Turnout will be very low for this special election meaning the only ones turning out will be the bases.  In CA the democratic base is much larger than the Republican base.  Unions and San Fran and LA liberals will pour out against him, while the average voter will sit at home meaning a democratic landslide.
John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.
by jkfp2004 on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 09:59:08 PM EST

Ahhhnold - answer this (none / 0)

Imagine this - 30,000 out of 70,000 state-owned vehicles in Kaaaaliforniyaaaaaaaa (for those who don't speak German, its California) are missing.  I kid you not.

Ahhhnooollld, how do you lose 30,000 cars?  


"The Mystery Of 30,000 Missing State Vehicles"

Did they get lost during the redistricting?

by dtlc on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 10:34:20 AM EST

Re: Ahhhnold - answer this (none / 0)

Um, I'm no fan of the governator, but if you read the original article (the CBS5 one, not the satire you linked), the audit in which the 30,000 vehicles were found to be missing was ordered by Schwarzenegger when he took office.  So the cars were clearly not lost on his watch.
by taliesin on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 01:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is why I head over to MyDD (none / 0)

this post is why I am here. This guy gets a 3.

by turnerbroadcasting on Tue Aug 30, 2005 at 10:55:23 AM EST


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